In beginning of Sep, there’re several reasons which underpin the hog price. On the demand side, the cooler weather, the new semester and pre-holiday consumption had helped with the demand recovery. On the supply side, as farmers were buying piglets back in Mar-Apr at a high price, they tended to sell these hogs in Sep more expensive, which in turn, led to a constrained supply of market hogs.
      But when it came to mid Sep, farmers began to worry about the price collapse after the holiday, and they became more willing to sell hogs. At the same time, slaughtering houses agree to buy more hogs only at lower prices, pushing the hog price to go down. Besides, farmers are not interested in buying piglets in Sep, as these piglets will not be ready to be sold until Feb-Mar, when is normally the weakest season for pork consumption, thus the piglet market was very quiet in Sep.
As hog price kept decreasing into second half of Sep, farmers were more eager to sell hogs before holiday, and the feed price increase had added to their eagerness. As a result, the supply has exceeded the demand, leading to a very weak trend of hog price right before the holiday.
      Until beginning of Oct, the hog price had been decreasing for a consecutive 3 weeks. Most market hogs had been sold already, so we estimate the supply in Oct will not be too much. But we must take into consideration that government had released meat stock into market in some areas, which may add to the pork supply. And it is no doubt the consumption will drop after the holiday, it is possible that the hog price will keep decreasing in Oct.